Training Certificate

Prolific Consultants FZE Certificate of Course Completion will be issued to all attendees.

Course Introduction

With increased volatility of oil and gas prices, changing regulations, (geo)political conflicts and new technologies, planning and decision making in the oil and gas industry requires the use of multiple scenarios and real option valuation techniques to maximize potential upside and minimize potential downside. Over the last four decades the scenario planning has become the planning methodology of choice by all major players in the field. Featuring the latest artificial intelligence and dynamic planning tools, this training course will enable you to help your company to outsmart the competition.

This training course will feature:

• The history and state of the art scenario planning
• The use of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Analysis
• Real option valuation techniques to help decision making (both up- and downstream)
• Scenario planning as a process within the organization
• Facilitation and reporting techniques

Course Objective

By the end of this training course, participants will be able to:

• Analyze relevant economic, technological, legal and social trends using big data analysis
• Develop multiple realistic scenarios for your company
• Create scenarios for planning and decision-making purposes
• Facilitate scenario planning workshops
• Present to board level decision makers with impact

Suitable For

This training course is for current and future planners, strategists, analysts and economists on project, division and corporate level within the oil and gas industry, but also for investment banks and investors.  Individuals who are seeking a future C-lever executive position.

This training course is suitable to a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit:

• Planners
• Investment analysts
• Strategists
• Economists
• Future executives
• Oil and Gas executives

Training Methodology

A highly interactive combination of lectures and discussion sessions will be managed to maximize the amount and quality of information and knowledge transfer. The sessions will start by raising the most relevant questions, and motivate everybody find the right answers. You will also be encouraged to raise your own questions and to share in the development of the right answers using your own analysis and experiences.  Tests of multiple-choice type will be made available on daily basis to examine the effectiveness of delivering the course.

Very useful Course Materials will be given.

Course Content

Day One:  

History and Theory of Scenario Planning

• Overview of the course
• Introductions
• History of Scenario planning
• Theory of scenario based strategy
• Trend analyses using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data
• Horizon scanning and early warning systems

Day Two:  

Exploring the World of Oil & Gas

• Case studies and examples
• Defining predetermined elements and key uncertainties
• Deep dive: Modelling
• Developing Scenario frameworks
• Facilitating scenario workshops

Day Three:  

Developing Scenarios

• Steps in developing scenarios and the Power of Stories
• Creating narratives and timelines
• Quantification of scenarios
• Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Material
• Presenting Scenarios to decision makers, executives and stakeholders

Day Four:  

Using Scenarios (Real Options)

• Introduction to Real Options Theory
• Call and put options in up- and downstream investments
• Stress testing and wind tunneling existing strategies
• Developing real options to minimize downside risk and maximize upside potential
• Quantification of options using a binominal approach
• Using Options Theory to valuate investments and support decision making

Day Five:  

Strategy, Planning and Taking it Home

• Linking scenarios and options to strategy, planning and budgeting processes
• Transferring the methodology to your existing strategy and planning process
• Essential soft skills, personal and team competences
• Road mapping next steps

Case Studies, Last Day Review, Discussions & Pre & Post Assessments will be carried out.